COP28 President-elect Sultan Al Jaber has issued a rallying call for Ministers and diplomats gathering in Dubai ahead of the official opening of the COP28 Climate Summit tomorrow, insisting the meeting can deliver an “unprecedented outcome” that could keep alive hopes of limiting temperature increases to 1.5C.
According to an analysis earlier this month from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the world is currently on track for 3C of warming this century. Even if governments deliver on stated decarbonisation goals the world would still face an estimated 2.5C to 2.9C of warming, far in excess of the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping temperature increases ‘well below’ 2C and ideally to 1.5C of warming.
But speaking to the Guardian newspaper, Al Jaber insisted the latest UN Climate Summit could trigger a step change in global decarbonisation efforts that could result in emissions being slashed by 2030.
“I have to be cautiously optimistic,” he said. “But I have the levers and the traction that I am experiencing today that will allow for us to deliver the unprecedented outcome that we all hope for.
“Getting back on track, and ensuring that the world accepts a robust understanding of a roadmap to 2030 that will keep [a temperature rise above pre-industrial levels of] 1.5C (2.7F) within reach is my only goal.”
Scientists have advised that to limit warming to 1.5C major economies need to halve emissions by 2030 before achieving net zero emissions by 2050. None of the world’s major emitters are on track to meet such ambitious goals.
However, Al Jaber argued that preliminary meetings in the run up to COP28 indicated an agreement is possible that would provide Loss and Damage funding for climate vulnerable nations, boost flows of climate finance, accelerate the roll out of clean technologies, and deliver a compromise on how to manage the phase out or phase down of unabated fossil fuels.
He told the Guardian that countries that have traditionally been regarded as obstructive to ambitious climate accord, such as Saudi Arabia, has shown “positivity, engagement, receptive to my cause and my call to actions… towards achieving the most ambitious climate action outcome at Cop28” in the run up to the talks.
The comments will fuel speculation that petrostates and large emerging economies such as China could be willing to boost flows of climate finance and pay into the new Loss and Damage Fund.
There are also growing hopes that governments could agree ambitious new clean tech targets to treble global renewables capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
Al Jaber indicated he was keen to see the future of fossil fuels included in any final text, despite resistance from some governments to calls for a full “phase out” of fossil fuels.
“I am inviting and incentivising and motivating all parties to engage in a collaborative manner to see and assess how we can include fossil fuel in the negotiated text, that will cater for consensus and common ground, while keeping 1.5C within reach,” he told the Guardian.
The interview came as the UAE hosts of the summit continued to face criticism from environmental campaigners for allegedly preparing to promote fossil fuel projects at bilateral meetings in the run up to the Summit. Saudi Arabian officials were also caught out by an undercover investigation this week, which revealed how they are working to lock in future oil demand from developing economies.
The reports have again thrown a spotlight on the intense lobbying from fossil fuel interests in the run up to the Summit. But Al Jaber again insisted that delivering on global climate goals would require the involvement of the fossil fuel industry in the clean energy transition.
Hopes of an ambitious agreement were given a further boost yesterday by reports Brazil has become the latest major economy to back proposals for a target to treble renewables capacity by 2030.
The South American country was singled out in a report last month from Ember as a country already building significantly more renewables than its current national targets called for.
However, a string of last minute additions the COP agenda suggest a fight is brewing between countries at the talks over carbon tariffs, in particular the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) scheme, which is set to come into full force in 2027.
A proposal introduced to the provisional agenda for the talks four days ago by Brazil for the BASIC group of emerging economies references “concerns with unilateral trade measures and their potential adverse impact on equitable and just transitions”.
The EU’s CBAM is designed to speed up decarbonisation efforts outside of Europe and prevent EU heavy industry from relocating to countries with lower environmental costs.
The measure is unpopular among many countries who trade with the EU, who have argued it erects a trade barrier that will impact the sustainable development of developing and emerging countries.
— Simon Evans (@DrSimEvans) November 28, 2023
Meanwhile, more than 100 climate negotiators yesterday signed an open statement in memory of the late UK climate diplomat Pete Betts which calls on all delegates attending the talks to push for an ambitious outcome.
The statement was put out by the Cartegena Dialogue group that Betts co-founded, which brings together countries from countries around the world committed to climate action.
Envoys from the UK, Mexico, Germany, France, Marshall Islands, Colombia, Chile, Barbados and EU Commission were among the dozens of negotiators to praise Betts in the statement.
“The countries in our dialogue do not always hold the same positions and we do not seek to,” the statement notes. “But we listen to each other in the spirit of finding a way forward and reaching a common ground. We are bound by our will to strive for the highest possible ambition.
“We are committed to action and we continue to work together towards an outcome at COP28 that genuinely puts us on track to achieve the Paris goals and enable sustainable development. We call on others to join us for the good of this planet and our people, and in memory of Pete Betts.”
Betts, who was lead negotiator for the UK and EU during the critical COP21 talks that resulted in the historic Paris Agreement, died last October.
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