The scale of the challenge faced by diplomats pushing for a new global agreement to ‘phase out’ unabated fossil fuels at the upcoming UN Climate Summit in Dubai was underscored yesterday by reports detailing how both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are privately working to sustain long term demand for oil and gas.
Just hours after the BBC reported yesterday that COP28 hosts the UAE had used bilateral meetings with governments ahead of the Summit to promote new oil and gas investments, Channel 4 News and the Centre for Climate Reporting revealed how Saudi Arabia is using its Oil Demand Sustainability Programme (ODSP) to drive long term demand for oil from developing economies.
Publicly the ODSP has been presented as a plan to support the energy transition in poorer nations, for example through programmes to replace wood burning stoves with gas cooking.
But an undercover investigation by Channel 4 News and the Centre for Climate Reporting found one senior Saudi Arabian official admitting that “one of the main objectives” of the programme was to stimulate demand for oil at a time when governments are working to decarbonise their economy.
The investigation details how the ODSP is focused on a series of programmes that would lock in future oil demand, including proposals to accelerate the development of supersonic air travel, partner with a carmaker to mass produce a cheap combustion engine vehicle for emerging markets, and promote the wider use of fossil fuel-powered ships.
When asked about the plans to develop supersonic commercial flights by an undercover reporter, a Saudi official said: “You know, supersonic aviation consumes more energy and the market size is expected to grow significantly. So our opportunity here is to facilitate growth and development of supersonic technologies.”
The revelations follow an announcement in June to the Saudi stock exchange of a memorandum of understanding between the ODSP and the Saudi Industrial Export Company, which initially said it would enable “activities in the fields of sustaining the demand of oil”. The following day an update was released clarifying that the intention was to enable “activities to increase energy access”.
When asked by undercover reporters if the programme was designed to boost oil demand, a Saudi official admitted that was the case, but argued that investment in fossil fuel infrastructure was necessary to drive development in poorer nations.
“Yes, it’s one of the main objectives that we are trying to accomplish,” he said. “We don’t believe it’s possible that [developing countries] can skip this [fossil fuel] phase because, in order to implement electric vehicles fully, you’ll need a ready infrastructure.
“A lot of African countries now do not have enough grid [electricity] to support their day-to-day lives. We believe they deserve the chance to get the required energy for their development now. Then in the future they can work to improve or to transit into more efficient energy sources.”
The revelations prompted outrage among environmental campaigners, who have long warned that unless developing economies are provided with financial support to allow them to ‘leapfrog’ past fossil fuel technologies and deploy cleaner and more cost effective renewables global climate goals will be missed.
Channel 4 News said Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy, which oversees the OSP, did not respond to its requests for comment.
The UAE’s COP28 team, meanwhile reportedly did not deny using COP28 meetings for business talks, but declined to comment on any details of discussions, telling the BBC that its work has been focused on “meaningful climate action”.
The news came as former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres criticised the UAE hosts of COP28 following reports they had used preparatory meetings for the Dubai Summit to promote fossil fuel interests.
“This is the ‘Volkswagen 2015’ moment for the COP28 Presidency,” she said on social media platform X. “Caught red handed, the COP Presidency has no other option but to now unequivocally step up the transparency, responsibility and accountability with which they lead the process. This COP Presidency will be under public scrutiny like no other ever before. This is a deep challenge and a transformational opportunity for them. The planet cannot afford for them to not step up.”
Her comments were echoed by former US Vice President Al Gore, who said: “The chances for real progress at COP28 were badly damaged early this year when an oil company CEO was appointed to lead the negotiations. And now investigative journalists have confirmed some of the worst fears of those who criticised that absurd appointment with the shocking news that the President-designate has been using the meetings he has set up with nations around the world to sell more oil and gas.
“At the same time, the fossil fuel company he leads (the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) has been preparing to launch one of the largest expansions of oil and gas production of any company in the world – timed to begin immediately after COP28 concludes. Using international climate talks as leverage to shore up support for pumping more oil and gas at a time when we urgently need to phase out fossil fuels is – to say the least – utterly appalling.”
Meanwhile, new data confirmed US oil and gas production is set to hit record levels this year, with the latest federal government forecast predicting 12.9 million barrels of crude oil will be extracted in 2023 – more than double the level of a decade ago. Records are also set to be broken for gas production following the opening of a series of export terminals on Gulf of Mexico coast.
The revelations will deal a further blow to hopes among some countries that COP28 can secure a commitment from countries to “phase out” unabated fossil fuels. The so-called High Ambition Coalition of nations, including the EU, is set to call for such a commitment, but they are set to face fierce resistance from petrostates who maintain that continued fossil fuel production can be made compatible with global climate goals.
There was better news for plans for governments to back a new target to treble global renewables capacity, as a new report from consultancy giant Wood Mackenzie highlighted how China’s clean energy sector is continuing to grow faster than expectations.
The report showed how China is on target to reach a record-breaking 230GW of wind and solar installations this year, delivering more than double the amount of new US and European capacity.
Alex Whitworth, vice president and head of Asia Pacific power and renewables research at Wood Mackenzie, said: “China announced its 2060 carbon neutral target in 2020 and since then has been quietly re-organising the entire power sector to support rapid electrification and expansion of renewables. As we came out of COVID-19 lockdowns this year, it’s impressive to see how far ahead China really is. While some other markets are moderating renewables targets, China has pushed up its 2025 wind and solar outlook by 43 per cent or 380GW in just a couple of years.”
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